Geopolitical Risk Matrix: The Middle East

Rising Tensions feed into higher conflicts probabilities

GEOPOLITICAL RISK MATRIX

The Matrix reflects the “WHAT-HOW-HOW MUCH-HOW LIKELY factors that impact geopolitical risk in the Middle East, given recent developments.  This analysis is based on my recent article in the May 2024 Issue of the Intelligent Risk, the flagship publication of PRMIA, (the Professional Risk Managers International Association)

file:///Users/MigratedAccount/Downloads/02iRisk_May24.pdf

Discussion Points:

Escalation of Israel-Iran conflict into a full-bore Israeli attack on Iran is highly likely. However what will matter is the extent of the Israeli military action and the Tehran response

A sharp escalation of that conflict could drag in the U.S., although that is a scenario that the U.S. is likely to avoid

Given the U.S pressure on Israel and the importance of keeping oil flows intact, oil supply discussions are not highly likely